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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.